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HCFI Round Table Environment Expert Zoom Meeting on “Climate Impacts (Heatwaves, Flooding etc.) on Crop Productivity/Food Security-UN’s IPCC Report 22”

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Dr Veena Aggarwal, Consultant Womens’ Health, CMD and Editor-in-Chief, IJCP Group & Medtalks Trustee, Dr KK’s Heart Care Foundation of India    01 June 2022

May 22, 2022, Sunday 

12 noon - 1pm

  • The United Nations has declared 22nd May as International Day for Biological Diversity to increase understanding and awareness on biodiversity issues. The theme this year is “building a shared future for all lives”. 
  • Biological diversity remains the answer to several sustainable development challenges from nature waste solution to climate, health issues, food & water security including sustainable livelihood. Climate change has a lot of impact on biological diversity, flora and fauna, crop productivity etc.
  • The latest report of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released this year paints a very troubling picture. The climate change is already impacting every corner of the world & much more severe impact is in store if we fail to halve greenhouse gas emissions and immediately scale up restoration. 
  • The 6th IPCC assessment report of Working Group II uses data about 34,000 studies, has 270 authors from 67 countries and provides one of the most intensifying impact of climate change and future risk. It details the most effective and feasible climate adaptation approaches and also indicates the most vulnerable people and ecosystems.
  • Droughts, extreme heat, floods have threatened food security & livelihoods of millions of people. Since year 2008 devastating floods and storms have forced more than 20 million people from their homes this year. Since 1961 crop productivity growth in Africa has reduced by a third due to climate change. The impact from climate change may be worse in the near future.
  • IPCC estimates that in the next decade alone climate change will drive 32-132 million more people to extreme poverty. 
  • Global warming will jeopardize food security as well as increase the incidence of heat related mortality, heart diseases and mental health challenges. This report finds that every tenth of a degree of additional warming will escalate threat to people, species and the ecosystem. 
  • Limiting the global warming to 1.5oC (target in the Paris Agreement) is not safe for all. With 1.5oC of global warming, many glaciers around the world will either disappear completely or lose most of their mass. Glaciers are a matter of concern because all North Indian rivers are glacier fed to begin with.
  • With 1.5oC or higher of global warming, climate changes may be irreversible leading to stronger storms, longer heatwaves and droughts, extreme precipitation, thawing of permafrost, mass forest dieback. 
  • Additional 350 million people will experience water scarcity by 2030 and nearly 44% of terrestrial species will face high risk of extinction. If 1.5 degree rise in temperature, biodiversity loss is 14%; if it is 2 degrees then 18% biodiversity loss; if 3 degrees then 29% biodiversity loss. When we compare 1.5 degrees vs 2 degrees, then the impact is 1.3 times worse and for 1.5 vs 3 degrees, the impact is 2.1 times worse.
  • In drought conditions, population is exposed to water scarcity and heat stress. At 1.5 degrees warming, 95 billion people will be impacted. At 2 degrees warming, 1.15 billion people will be impacted and at 3 degrees warming, 1.29 billion people will be impacted.
  • The effect on food security will be 63 billion USD with 1.5 degrees warming; 80 billion USD with 2 degrees warming and at 3 degrees the impact is 128 billion USD. 
  • There is increased risk of forest fires with climate change. Increase in burnt areas across Europe at 1.5 degrees warming, the impact will be 42-54%; at 2 degrees the impact will be 62-87% and at 3 degrees the impact is 96-180%. Comparison of 1.5 degrees versus 2 degrees, 1.6 times worse impact on fire and for 1.5 versus 3 degrees, the impact on fires is 3 times worse. 
  • The impact on extreme heat with 1.5 degrees warming is 45- 58%; at 2 degrees warming it is 52-68% and at 3 degrees it is 66-89%. The annual number of heat waves in southern Africa will be 2-4 times at 1.5 degrees, 4-8 times at 2 degrees and 8-12 times at 3 degrees.
  • Globally, sea level will rise between 10 and 30 inches by 2100. At 1.5 degrees warming it will be 0.28 to 0.5 m rise, at 2 degrees it will rise by 0.44-0.70 m. Coastal areas maybe prone to flooding because of rise in sea level.
  • With 1.5 degrees rise, flooding will increase by 24%, at 2degrees it will be 30%. If we compare 1.5 vs 2 degrees, there will be 1.3 times worse impact of flooding.
  • At 1.5 degrees, there will be a decline of 70-90% in coral reefs; at 2 degrees it will be 99%. If we compare 1.5vs 2, the impact on coral reefs will be 1.2times worse.
  • Negative impact on crops like wheat, maize, rice, soyabean, cereals and all crops.
  • Mitigation of greenhouse gases is important as we have already crossed the target of  1.5° C increase because of greenhouse gases. It is expected that average temperature may increase by 2° by the end of this century. Impact as compared to 1.5° increase will be very high when we cross 2°C.
  • Many organizations are inclined to have alternate source of energy in form of solar energy. It is being targeted as an alternative source to minimize carbon footprint. Some institutions and industries are achieving solar energy and are replacing the electricity to the tune of 25-40%. So, there is a great hope to minimize the carbon footprint as much as possible. 
  • Along with government it is also the responsibility of individual & public to minimize the carbon footprint in our daily use and in our homes also by not wasting energy and contribute to achieving targets of temperature.
  • Life on this earth has come from temperature, which it gets from the sun. Many planets have zero degrees or minus temperature. The biodiversity is also a part of life, human life as well as plants and animals. Our policies must be based on science.
  • An international body, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) incorporates the role of science in public decision-making on biodiversity.
  • There are many routes by which climate change can affect food security and thus human health. One major route is via climate change affecting the amount of food. With annual rise in temperature due to climate change, the wheat production is also reducing. It is the direct effect on yield and indirect through the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. Another route is by changing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Food safety risk during transport and storage can also be exacerbated by the changing climate.
  • Exposure of the workforce to extreme temperatures due to climate change can directly affect human health. Food availability may also have an impact. All these factors have the potential to alter both physical health as well as cultural health, through changing the amount, safety and quality of food available for individuals within their cultural context.
  • Climate drivers relevant to food production and availability may be categorized as modal climate changes (e.g., shifts in climate envelopes causing shifts in cropping varieties planted), seasonal changes (e.g., warming trends extending growing seasons), extreme events (e.g., high temperatures affecting critical growth periods, flooding/droughts), and atmospheric conditions for example, CO2 concentrations, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as ozone and black carbon and dust. 
  • Water resources for food production will be affected through changing rates of precipitation and evaporation, ground water levels, and dissolved oxygen content. 
  • Other variables that affect agricultural production, processing, and/ or transport are solar radiation, wind, humidity, and (in coastal areas) salinization and storm surge. Extreme climate events leading to inland and coastal flooding, can affect the ability to obtain and prepare food.
  • Several studies have shown that climate change is affecting agriculture and food security in Asia. 
  • Energy sector has the maximum carbon emissions.
  • India is the only country with environment mentioned in its constitution. 

 

Participants

 

Dr Anil Kumar

Mr Paritosh Tyagi

Dr SK Tyagi

Dr Sanjeev Agrawal

Mr Neeraj Tyagi

Mr Ankit Sethi

Dr S Sharma

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